By Mirza Kashif Baig
The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad, is an informal strategic alliance between the four key players in the Indo-Pacific regions namely India, US, Japan and Australia, and was created due to address the growing Chinese influence in the region. It has so far been considered a step aimed at keeping maritime routes open for coordination; however, its transformation into a military alliance within the growing US-China competition cannot be ruled out. The need for this alliance first proposed by former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in 2007; at the time, however, it did not happen due to Australia’s reluctance, probably due to Chinese concerns. China has become a major investor in Australia and their bilateral trade reached AUD240 billion between July 2019 and July 2020. In 2014, the leaders of both countries described their relations as a full strategic partnership. However, their relations are deteriorating since April 2020, mainly due to trade bans and Australian criticism of China’s actions in the South China Sea, and towards Taiwan and Hong Kong. India was fast to take advantage of these declining relations and invited Australia to join Quad. Thus, 13 years later, by 2020, four democracies transformed this vision into a reality and gave way to a long-awaited unity. In 2020, Australia again accepted India’s invitation to join the Malabar Exercise 2020, making it the first time that all Quad members have joined the military. Quad is now in the process of developing new strategies to keep important maritime routes in the Indo-Pacific region free of Chinese influence. China’s development of artificial islands, seen as a vicious Chinese navy strategy in the East China Sea by the US, also poses challenges to international maritime law. In addition, China’s redefining of the Air Protection Index is viewed by the US with concern and is considered a threat to peace in the Indo-Pacific. The US main goal is therefore to embrace China’s growing influence in the region. China has called Quad a “Asian version of NATO”, despite the fact that Quad’s influence extends beyond Asia. The combination of the QUAD members was well thought out and India was supposed to be a major player in South East Asia to counter China, Russia, and even Pakistan owing to the country’s deep roots with China, particularly with regard to CPEC. The situation, however, changed with time as the gap between the Indian strategy and that of the other members widened. India initially took a different direction, from other QUAD countries, on the matter of the Beijing Winter Olympics. Later, India remained silent when on the matter of North Korea’s nuclear missile tests which were condemned by the other three members in a joint statement. Recently, India chose to not speak against Russia on the matter of the Ukraine invasion despite the clear stance of the other members. Also, India has not aligned itself in line with the sanctions imposed against Russia. India continues to conduct trade and buy Russian oil. These factors along with the growing human rights violations due to the government’s support of Hindu extremist elements have made the US realize that it cannot rely on India and as a result, India was not made part of the AUKUS. QUAD alliance, however, requires a strong reliable South Asian member to counter China and therefore the US may look to induct Pakistan into this alliance to achieve the final result to make Quad a Quadstan. Would Pakistan go this trade, it seems impossible for the time being as Pakistan has learns lessons being ally of USA and was ditched by USA every time by abandoning it, In 1989 when USSR was defeated and in 2021 when USA left Afghanistan duly defeated and blaming Pakistan for its defeat and turning the world as multipolar instead of Unipolar. It was big blow to USA.